Friday, 8 July 2016

What ratio of PhD graduates in STEM fields ultimately end up as (tenured) professors?



I recently saw this infogram circling around various social networks:


enter image description here


It appeared in this Tweet with the following claim:



Got a PhD? Your chance of becoming a Professor is 0.45%. Good luck.



Being a bit sceptical of the claim and of shiny info-grams in general, I traced the image back through this blog to this report by the Royal Society (see page 14), featuring various reputable academics in the introduction. The report cites a number of other reports from UK organisations as its source (I did not dig deeper). The infogram seemingly pertains to graduates of PhDs in the UK in STEM fields.


I find the figures literally incredible. I cannot believe them. Fewer than 1-in-200 PhD graduates become professors? This would imply, for example, that STEM professors in the UK would need to graduate 200 PhD students just to "repopulate" themselves.


I would like to compare these estimates with figures sourced elsewhere. And so my question is:


Are any other studies or sources of data for estimating the number of PhD graduates who end up with professorships? (... preferably within the STEM areas and not restricted to the UK)





There is a related question specifically for the maths field and referring to tenure-track positions but none of the answers really address this question: What percentage of phds in math actually get a tenure track academic job?


EDIT: Pointer to a follow-up question asked by @gerrit: How many PhD students does a typical STEM professor graduate during their entire career?



Answer



Just looked up some numbers for Germany:




  • In 2013, 8700 PhDs were finished in maths/natural sciences.





  • average age at finishing (all fields): 32.5 a




  • average age at becoming professor (maths/natural sciences): 40.5 a




  • predicted number of retiring professors in 2021 = in 8 years = when last year's fresh PhDs reach the average age of becoming professor
    (maths/natural sciences): ca. 190





190 : 8700 ≈ 1 : 46 or 2.2 %


Some of the tables show only overall numbers, and no details for maths. But I think that this result is influenced by the fact that the majority of chemistry and biology students go on for a PhD (though I guess that a non-negligible fraction leaves for industry [slightly] before finishing the PhD - which after all may not be that different from doing a PhD in order to get a better entrance position in industry).


Sources: Statistisches Bundesamt



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