Monday, 25 December 2017

conservation biology - What is projected to go extinct first?



Though a number of animals have been going extinct at alarmingly quicker rates (so called anthropocene extinction), a number of 'star' threatened animals are still alive. Which of the following charismatic endangered species is modeled or expected to die off soonest: polar bear, panda, black rhino, african elephant, mountain gorilla,bengal tiger/ tiger.



Where can I find population projection models for each of these species?


Mountain gorillas have the current smallest population, but polar bears are clearly in a lot of (and quickly widening) trouble due to melting ice. African elephants are seeing species loss due to poaching, and drying conditions making food/water scarce, which could also speed their decline, but they have the largest of the populations.


Since WWF and other conservation organizations use these charismatic species to 'sell' conservation and raise interest, awareness and funding, losing one (or many) of these species could affect conservation considerably. This will either be positively via a reactionary disappointment by the public or negatively by losing a "poster species".




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